Vintage Steel Market - Dropping?

Chris LeDrew · From: Canada

It seems the vintage guitar market is finally taking a hit. If you search completed listings on Ebay you will see original '60s and '70s Teles and Strats going for considerably less than they were last year, and many more being relisted to infinity because no one's buying.

I wonder if the same is happening to vintage pedal and non-pedal steel guitars? Up until recently, it was commonplace to a see an old single-neck Sho~Bud be scooped off Ebay for $1,800 - $2,000 or thereabouts. Now, most of the Sho~Buds are languishing there for a long time. Some are overpriced, yes....but even the moderately-priced ones don't seem to be moving. I have one on there now that I highly doubt will move for anything near my starting bid, even though it is a pretty standard price for the instrument. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong about that.

In the Emmons PP camp, are guitars moving? I see PP D10s here on the forum in the $4,000 range and sometimes even higher, but do they sell? Who is buying a used steel for that much money these days? There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of people laying down big cash anymore for such purchases. I think that people are finally realizing that "great tone" is not the be-all end-all of music, and that their hard-earned cash neesd to be put in more important places. I could be wrong. Can anyone give me some perspective here?

Could we be seeing the beginnings of a vintage steel market crash? Furthermore, is the used steel market in general dropping?
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Tom Quinn · Posted 17 Jun 2009 4:42 pm

Like a rock. I aked Ivey if I could take those old push/pulls out of his garage for 10 bucks each and he wanted 15. No way, sez I, call me when you want to get real...
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I need an Emmons!

Gordon Hartin · From: Durham, NC

Is there and has there ever been a vintage steel market? It seems that by today's standards a desirable vintage steel costs about the same as a new pedal steel, but a vintage guitar can cost 300 times the amount as a new guitar. I have noticed used steels not selling as fast compared to the past couple years, but I think most steel owners will just put them in the closet for a few years unless they have a new one they are trying to pay for.

Duncan Hodge · From: DeLand, FL USA

Hey Chris. I believe it's about time that the used steel market started to fall. Since I bought my first used steel off the Forum in late 2003 the prices people have been trying to get for a used steel have gone up at least 50%, if not quite a bit more, by my admittedly unscientific figuring. The prices have seemed to get really crazy in the past couple of years. I have noticed, though, that more moderately priced steels sell quite quickly around here. I'm rooting for the prices to really start falling soon. (Except for your really nice Bud, which is already a decently priced steel, in fact, a bargain)
Duncan
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"The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over."

Gary Anderson · From: Fort Mohave, Arizona, USA

Don't know about the vintage market, but there are 34 builders of steel
guitars listed in the link's section of the Forum. I feel that the supply will
soon be more than we can use. Remmber GM and the suburbans. I too
got cought up the excitement and now I am wondering how I wound up
with 4 pedal steels 2 lap steels 3 guitars and a mandolin. (no banjo) and
can't even play one!

Eric Philippsen · From: Central Florida USA

Last Sunday I had a booth at the Columbus OH guitar show which is a rather large event. It was a profitable day for me. Having been in the business for 20 years, here is my perspective as a vintage guitar dealer and steel player.

It is absolutely true that the vintage guitar market has suffered as has virtually everything else. What sells most now are well-priced, desirable, original instruments with no issues whatsoever. Very high-priced pieces move slowly, if at all. It is my belief that vintage dealer prices have not kept pace with the falling market. They remain too high and have not adjusted. I have seen outstanding, reasonably priced pieces with only a changed set of tuners NOT sell. That is a telling indicator of a tough economic climate. However, without question there are buyers and they spend their money carefully.

What about used/vintage steel guitars? I follow that market closely. In my opinion, Emmons push-pulls and Zums are what are selling these days. That does not surprise me. Of course there are exceptions.

Finally, it is a mistake to believe that the vintage guitar market and vintage steel market are very much alike. They are not. There are fundamental differences.

Jerry Roller · From: Van Buren, Arkansas USA

I have seen a gradual climb in prices of Emmons guitars and especially Emmons push pull guitars. They are not being jumped on all that quick but I believe if you put a D10 push pull on the market at the going price of one year ago it would not last an hour.
Jerry

Jerome Hawkes · From: Fayetteville, North Carolina, USA

i think steels, new or vintage are still a bargain COMPARED to what other string instruments sell for. even a decent pro grade banjo is $3500 - $4K for a nice P/P is not really over the top. i really dont see how the builders make any money off a $3-4k steel.
we had better be thankful that the big money has stayed out of the steel market, unlike the guitar market (that is, if you are looking to buy). while i certainly appreciate the bigsby's, i think the run-up they have had from $8k a few years ago to $25k+ is just speculation that will crash back down. of course, compared to a $50K+ tele, the bigsby's look "reasonable".
its gonna be a hard pill to swallow for people wanting to move vintage instruments, unless like as been mentioned, they are 100% original and issue free - the problem with 99% of vintage steels is that they are not. i have noticed that steelers want nice restored instruments, while the vintage market's distaste for them is notorious.
the bottom line is the vintage guitar market, like the whole dotcom/housing bubble got WAY out of wack...i sold a BEAT '55 les paul jr that had been rattle-can spray painted red, had no hardware, pickup, case or anything (i paid $15 for it) - just the body/neck to a guy for $3500 (and he JUMPED on it! -made me feel like i gave it away - the original finish WAS under all that red spray paint)...that was when i knew it was going nuts.
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'65 Sho-Bud D-10 Permanent • '54 Fender Dual-8 • Clinesmith T-8 • '38 Ric Bakelite • '92 Emmons D-10 Legrande II

Dave Mudgett · From: Central Pennsylvania and Gallatin, Tennessee

I don't think there is yet a true "vintage steel guitar market", the way there is with vintage guitars. I think even cool push-pull Emmons were pretty inexpensive even 2-3 years ago, and between a year and 2 years ago, they took a big jump (on here and with the big dealers), but the bad economy has kept even them languishing somewhat since the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. This is somewhat out of cycle to the vintage guitar market, which took a pretty sharp dive at least a year before the financial crisis started - the vintage guitar pattern was documented in the Vintage Guitar Price Guide published last fall, and had more to do with the price of gas and other perceived issues with the economy plus the fact that the market had clearly "bubbled" with stupidly insane high prices. My sense is that this is because there's a whole lot more speculation going on in that market - a whole lot of people - including many people who don't play a lick of guitar - buy vintage guitars purely for their investment potential. I think the contrast is that the vast majority of steel players (including me) buy steels purely to play them, and don't think much, if at all, about their investment potential. I only trade a steel if it doesn't work for me, and just replace it with another, which hopefully does, and I think that's pretty normal in this market. It reminds me of the guitar market 30 years ago, way before it got insane.

So what I notice is that a lot more very nice steel guitars are sitting for a long time unless they're real bargains. The desirable high-end stuff - like 60s push-pulls for high money, for example - is languishing for a long time. Old Sho Buds for high money seem to be the same. Overall, I see compression in the market - inexpensive models like BMI, Dekley, and MSA actually seem to have gone up and high end stuff seems to have come down or is having a hard time finding buyers due to the economy.

The vintage guitar market is so big and carefully watched that there is a lot of information and statistics about it. Steel guitars are so much a smaller slice that it isn't tracked anywhere near as carefully, so analyzing it is much more anecdotal and "from the hip". So everything I'm saying could be all wet - but that's just the way it seems to me.

Personally - I hope pedal steels never suffer the "collectoritis" mentality that has gripped the vintage guitar community. I have never sensed much danger of that - I think the community for which cool old pedal steels are serious "cultural icons" is pretty small. I really think it's that worldwide "cultural icon" status that has driven cool old guitars into the stratosphere.

James Morehead · From: Prague, Oklahoma, USA - R.I.P.

I'm not in the "know" by any means, but I think good playing used steels are outselling new steels. Folks are looking at refurbs a little more over buying new. Money is tight, and folks are being pretty careful these days. Amps seem pretty slow now, too.

David Doggett · Posted 18 Jun 2009 8:41 am

I see several different sectors in the vintage/used pedal steel market (and there are similar segments in the vintage/used lap steel and regular guitar markets).

The Investment-Collector segment involves high 4 and 5 figure prices for Bigsbys, the first few Sho-Buds and Emmons, and maybe a few others, and well-preserved or restored unique instruments played by top pros.

The Player-Collector segment involves players with disposable income who like to own and maybe play well-preserved and restored beauties with historic and nostalgia value. Old Sho-Buds and Emmons p/ps are favorites, but also some of the other top brands of the past. These guys may also collect and trade loaded versions of top current brands.

The Semi-Pro/Amateur-Steeler segment buys and trades used instruments because of their low price. Looks, brand names, and vintage value may be less important than playability and repairability.

All of these segments have been affected by the major recession we are currently enduring, but maybe in different ways. I don’t really understand what’s happening in each segment, but starting several months ago there were a lot of instruments offered for sale that took a very long time, and some were even withdrawn. I think we might see more of that still, except that some sellers recognized the problem and are maybe sitting on things for awhile, hoping for improvement in the economy. The low end used market may even have seen greater demand and slightly rising prices, because that’s all many people can afford right now. All the indicators are that we are going to pull out of this historic recession very slowly. Except for the low end, that probably means vintage/used prices will be deflated for quite awhile. If your income is good and stable, it’s a great time to buy low. If you are having income problems and sell out of necessity, it’s a bad time to have to sell. Sucks doesn’t it. Sad

Joey Ace · From: Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

Very interesting discussion.

Another factor that hasn't been mentioned is playability vs originality.

While the vintage guitar market lusts after virgin gear, that's not so true in our Steel world.

An all original Tele can be played, but an original Emmons Push Pull, stock setup with 6 pedals and no knee levers, isn't good for much more than a display piece.

Back to the original question, yes prices are falling.
The collector market for pedal steels is negligible.

Bobbe Seymour · From: Hendersonville TN USA, R.I.P.

Very interesting to hear other players comments here, all I know is what I see moving on and off my showroom floor. What Mr. Doggett is saying is interesting, and I feel has a ring of fact to it.

I'm not seeing any slow down in vintage instrument sales yet, but then I am seeing some new folks come in to sell to me. Just different folks doing different things.

Times get hard and the guitars come in to me, they get good and everyone lines up to buy what I have. Pretty simple huh? Very Happy

Yes David, now is a great time to find great deals!

Bobbe

Jerome Hawkes · From: Fayetteville, North Carolina, USA

some of this relates to bobbe's newsletter today (6/1 Cool

where he states getting parts for these long out of production steels is a problem, if not impossible (unless you own a machine shop).

coming from a vintage guitar background, i still find the absence of concern for originality among steelers bewildering - i think its overboard in the guitar world by mass hysteria at having it 100% original, but a refinished/restored bigsby, sho-bud or lacquer emmons is actually preferred over a road worn version that would be coveted in the vintage guitar circles.
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'65 Sho-Bud D-10 Permanent • '54 Fender Dual-8 • Clinesmith T-8 • '38 Ric Bakelite • '92 Emmons D-10 Legrande II

Doug Beaumier · From: Northampton, MA

David Doggett · Posted 18 Jun 2009 2:31 pm

Mike Poholsky · From: Kansas, USA

It's not JUST the musical instrument market. Look around, when people won't or can't spend money, prices on most goods will come down. Sometimes, even that doesn't work. This recession is taking no prisoners. Cash is King right now, and if you have it, a market will come to you.
What Bobbe said.
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ShoBud VP
'64 Fender Twin Reverb/Fox Rehab
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FX to Taste

Chris LeDrew · From: Canada

Definitely, Mike. Because people are holding onto their money, things aren't selling. It seems as basic as that. This explains why the cheaper steel brands are going quick, while the vintage and premium steels are languishing. I remember not too long ago seeing premium steel guitars here on the forum in the $4,000 range selling fairly fast. You don't see that now.
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James Morehead · From: Prague, Oklahoma, USA - R.I.P.

I think everyone has a little different opinion of what they would call vintage vs. old and used, and in between. Seems some would say vintage would mean it's a "mint" aged instrument. A mint instrument might be a whole new topic.

I think of old steels kinda like Dave D.'s old car example. Fix them up and play them, because they won't be any good laying around broken or worn out. That may include upgrading them to keep up with todays musical standards. YMMV

To add to my comment, I think the vintage and the new guitar market will slow, and people with limited funds will become more interested in used older instruments. The used market will probably be the best market if your buying.

Donny Hinson · From: Glen Burnie, Md. U.S.A.

I'm not seeing any really significant drops. Occasionally, you will get the "down on your luck" bargain from someone who has more "wanting" than they do "green". But steels, except for some rare Rick's and Bigsby's are still within 10%-20% of their all time high prices. I was at a Christie's guitar auction in NY last fall (no steels), and there was no shortage of buyers or money, as most all instruments were in their estimated range when the gavel came down. A few were higher, and a few were slightly lower, but the real collectors (those guys with over 100 guitars) still have plenty of green. (A '58 Gibson "Flying V" estimated at $60-$80 thousand brought over $74 thousand.)

Tom Quinn · Posted 18 Jun 2009 5:28 pm

A '58 Vee sold for close to 600K three years ago...
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I need an Emmons!

Dave Mudgett · From: Central Pennsylvania and Gallatin, Tennessee

Yup - '58 Flying V's in excellent, original condition were at 100 grand many years ago. Many high-end vintage guitars have come down anywhere from 20-50% in the last couple of years. The "estimated" values are more in line with those, not the historic highs - at least that's my take on this. Seriously, I know of nice vintage Strats that have sold in the last several months for about half of what they were going for just a few years ago.

But pedal steel collecting has nowhere near the fervor of the vintage guitar market, even for what are cool vintage models for us. I think that, in time, nice examples will continue to appreciate, but I think there are bargains out there, brought on by the financial crisis, high unemployment, and the generally bad economy. I think this is true of collectibles of all types - cash is king, you can't eat collectibles, nor will they pay the mortgage or the kids' college tuition (unless converted to cash by selling them.) Add to this the fact that the main collecting demographic (boomers) are marching into retirement age at a pretty rapid rate, and frequently need to reorder their priorities at this stage of life. Again, my take.

Jim Sliff · From: Lawndale California, USA

It's a conundrum wrapped in an enigma... Whoa!

As mentioned, vintage "boat anchors" without modern features are not collectible except for a few specific guitars. And some of the more playable ones - maybe not in modern styles but certainly usable, like Fenders - are not collectible (maybe $1500 tops) while comparable year Teles or Strats are $40k.

Steel players seem, for the most part, to also think differently about prices than 6-string players. A Tele player might play a newer custom guitar ($2-4k) and also have a $3,000 pedalboard and $4,000 vintage amp; a steeler might spend $3k on a new steel (easily) yet balk at an amp priced over a grand...and effects are an afterthought, with mass-market Boss and such leading the way. Again, with the exception of Bigsbys and some Shobud and Emmons models it's not a collectible category.

And yes, the economy has taken a bite out of the small market that exists.
_________________
No chops, but great tone
1930's/40's Rickenbacher/Rickenbacker 6&8 string lap steels
1921 Weissenborn Style 2; Hilo&Schireson hollownecks
Appalachian, Regal & Dobro squarenecks
1959 Fender 400 9+2 B6;1960's Fender 800 3+3+2; 1948 Fender Dual-8 Professional

Brad Malone · From: Pennsylvania, USA

IMHO it comes down to interest and demand..the Steel market is just too small. We have a wonderful Forum here and yet many days you only see about 25 posts (under pedal steel) in a nation of 300 million people. I see pictures from the Steel Guitar shows and most of the people are over 50. Until younger people get involved the market will stay small and may even fade. While most Steelers are always thinking of adding more pedals and knee levers the finished product is probably scaring many potential newcomers away.

Donny Hinson · From: Glen Burnie, Md. U.S.A.

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